The 2025/26 cropping season is shaping up unevenly across Southern Africa. Alongside South Africa's record maize crop, Zambia has recorded its highest-ever maize harvest at roughly 4.9 to 5.1 million tonnes, and Zimbabwe expects a modest 2 percent increase in cereal output compared with the previous season, according to that country's second-round Crop, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment. Regional cereal production overall is projected to be above the five-year average, based on the FAO's Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.
Not every country is sharing in the good fortune, however. Cereal output is expected to fall in parts of Angola, where prolonged dryness has affected yields, and in Mozambique, where extensive flooding has damaged crops in several growing areas. Forecasters have also flagged a risk of below-average rainfall linked to an emerging El Niño weather pattern later in 2026, particularly for northern parts of the region where the main cropping season begins in June or July, a risk that could shape planning for the next planting cycle even amid this season's largely positive harvest news.
